* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/27/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 37 36 32 28 25 24 21 18 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 37 36 32 28 25 24 21 18 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 36 33 30 27 26 24 24 24 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 9 12 10 16 12 13 13 15 19 17 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 5 5 5 7 9 5 8 8 3 5 1 SHEAR DIR 266 222 208 239 262 238 262 258 255 265 271 253 255 SST (C) 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.6 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.7 26.4 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 115 112 110 111 112 116 119 122 129 135 137 139 142 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.9 -53.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 9 8 10 9 11 11 700-500 MB RH 59 58 50 49 48 46 45 41 41 42 46 44 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 19 19 18 17 15 14 12 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 12 0 -6 -6 -22 -20 -31 -45 -43 -49 -64 200 MB DIV 13 13 1 -5 -5 -4 -15 -6 11 4 -26 1 -12 700-850 TADV -10 -4 -4 -6 -11 -3 -11 -6 -4 -14 -10 -14 -12 LAND (KM) 1537 1350 1163 994 827 514 223 24 91 281 617 954 1273 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.8 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 140.2 142.0 143.7 145.3 146.9 149.9 152.8 155.8 158.9 162.3 165.7 169.0 172.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 14 14 15 15 16 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 7 12 13 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -9. -13. -17. -20. -21. -24. -27. -29. -31. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/27/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)