* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/28/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 36 34 32 28 27 24 25 22 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 34 32 28 25 25 26 22 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 36 34 32 29 26 28 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 9 10 11 7 16 19 19 19 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 8 8 8 17 13 8 10 8 4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 237 223 245 288 286 285 297 256 256 259 275 271 273 SST (C) 24.6 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.0 25.4 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 112 111 112 114 115 119 123 128 134 137 138 141 144 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.3 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 55 50 47 42 43 37 36 37 38 42 39 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 18 18 19 17 17 13 12 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 7 15 10 5 6 7 2 -1 -32 -48 -55 -62 -69 200 MB DIV 19 4 1 -4 -16 -24 -12 12 0 -24 -11 -19 -16 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -11 -9 -5 -9 -11 -8 -11 -12 -7 -10 -4 LAND (KM) 1313 1117 922 748 577 246 -23 167 220 474 857 1194 1545 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.0 19.8 19.8 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 142.3 144.2 146.0 147.7 149.3 152.5 155.7 158.4 160.8 164.0 167.9 171.2 174.6 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 16 15 15 14 12 13 17 17 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 10 9 13 32 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -13. -17. -18. -21. -20. -23. -28. -30. -32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/28/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)