* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/28/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 48 46 40 35 34 31 27 22 19 18 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 48 46 40 36 35 31 27 22 20 18 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 51 50 49 46 44 43 44 44 44 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 12 16 19 20 24 20 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 9 8 13 7 0 3 2 1 1 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 297 281 299 307 298 293 272 268 272 275 273 271 247 SST (C) 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.0 25.3 25.5 26.1 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 111 112 114 115 118 120 126 133 137 137 138 141 143 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 49 46 42 42 41 40 38 40 41 45 46 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 17 17 16 13 10 10 8 6 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -6 -7 -5 1 -13 -17 -23 -44 -47 -54 -65 -66 200 MB DIV -17 -11 -13 -27 -27 -13 -2 -5 -21 -12 -15 -33 -39 700-850 TADV -8 -15 -13 -5 -3 -9 -6 -5 -3 -5 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1100 921 743 571 401 91 98 215 416 709 1004 1288 1565 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 144.3 146.0 147.7 149.4 151.0 154.1 157.1 160.1 163.2 166.3 169.3 172.1 174.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 16 16 15 14 14 15 15 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 13 10 13 15 37 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -7. -12. -13. -15. -16. -20. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -15. -16. -19. -23. -28. -31. -32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/28/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)