* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/28/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 53 50 45 41 40 37 32 29 27 22 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 53 50 45 41 40 37 32 29 27 22 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 57 56 46 50 49 49 49 48 49 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 14 13 12 18 20 22 18 18 12 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 7 11 13 7 3 6 5 2 5 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 274 301 297 295 297 279 260 263 265 270 268 261 N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.3 25.4 25.8 26.5 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.7 27.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 113 115 118 119 123 131 136 137 139 143 145 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 9 11 11 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 44 44 43 40 38 35 37 40 40 44 46 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 17 17 15 13 10 10 9 6 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -11 -8 -1 -6 -17 -12 -30 -41 -55 -62 -68 N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -11 -20 -29 -36 6 -5 -11 -12 -1 -34 -41 N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -14 -7 -3 -7 -5 -10 -5 -14 -9 -6 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 921 738 557 391 229 10 159 340 633 975 1344 1684 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.0 147.8 149.5 151.1 152.7 156.0 159.3 162.6 165.7 169.1 172.7 176.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 7 10 13 34 20 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -11. -12. -15. -16. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -15. -18. -23. -26. -28. -33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/28/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)