* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/29/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 46 43 42 38 35 32 29 27 23 20 17 V (KT) LAND 50 49 46 43 41 38 35 32 28 26 23 20 16 V (KT) LGE mod 50 48 47 45 39 41 40 39 39 39 40 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 18 19 13 16 24 27 21 18 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 14 14 9 9 12 6 5 5 5 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 302 306 313 308 276 268 276 276 269 283 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 118 119 120 123 132 136 137 140 143 145 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.9 -54.6 -54.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 39 38 37 36 33 34 35 35 35 39 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 16 14 14 12 10 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -7 -3 -7 -16 -16 -32 -46 -53 -70 -78 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -41 -40 -17 4 -2 -10 -16 -12 -21 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -5 -11 -12 -5 -13 -12 -13 -8 -8 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 565 393 222 61 4 190 346 653 995 1351 1709 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.9 19.9 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.8 21.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.4 151.1 152.7 154.4 156.0 159.4 162.6 165.9 169.3 172.8 176.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 16 16 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 13 8 10 13 33 19 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -19. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -27. -30. -33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/29/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)