* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/29/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 38 35 31 27 24 22 21 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 38 36 32 28 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 39 38 36 35 35 34 34 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 15 14 12 12 21 26 26 24 20 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 13 11 7 7 10 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 308 304 295 286 268 270 277 269 274 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.9 26.3 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 121 124 129 135 138 138 141 144 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 9 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 39 39 34 35 34 36 36 38 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 14 13 11 9 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -2 -1 -11 -17 -21 -38 -48 -68 -87 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -38 -24 -13 8 -1 -3 -18 -7 -18 -9 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -11 -12 -7 -8 -10 -12 -5 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 369 197 39 41 193 299 545 873 1208 1553 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.6 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.3 153.0 154.6 156.3 157.9 161.2 164.6 168.0 171.3 174.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 16 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 3 22 10 14 34 20 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -24. -29. -31. -34. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/29/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)