* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/29/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 27 26 23 21 20 20 19 18 17 16 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 27 24 22 21 21 20 19 18 17 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 27 26 24 24 24 24 26 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 13 17 22 24 27 21 19 17 9 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 3 4 7 1 1 0 -1 -5 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 330 296 279 275 275 273 279 291 320 352 357 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.8 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 124 128 132 135 136 135 137 137 138 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.4 -55.2 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 37 35 38 39 42 39 39 39 46 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 11 10 9 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -34 -41 -46 -52 -78 -105 -110 -133 -121 -92 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 20 -5 -11 -10 -25 -15 -25 -29 -51 -58 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -6 -10 -11 -7 -12 -6 -5 -4 -4 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 118 26 38 47 134 479 773 1040 1272 1517 1758 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.7 23.8 24.2 24.3 24.6 24.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.1 155.8 157.4 159.3 161.1 164.4 167.1 169.7 172.0 174.4 176.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 18 17 15 12 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 6 11 12 6 3 6 3 11 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -9. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/29/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)