* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/30/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 24 22 20 19 21 22 23 21 20 21 V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 24 23 21 20 22 22 24 22 21 22 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 23 22 21 21 22 23 25 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 19 22 24 22 13 12 4 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 3 6 2 1 1 1 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 278 268 276 273 285 278 297 353 32 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 26.2 26.5 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 127 131 134 135 137 138 140 139 142 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 33 37 38 41 44 40 39 38 42 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 11 9 9 8 6 5 4 2 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -39 -50 -56 -64 -86 -97 -117 -136 -107 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 0 -5 -8 -5 -23 -8 -39 -16 -72 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -4 -4 -5 -6 -7 -3 -7 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 38 41 61 88 268 614 931 1243 1546 1817 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.2 22.9 23.1 23.7 24.5 25.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.7 157.3 158.9 160.7 162.4 165.7 168.8 171.8 174.7 177.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 17 16 15 14 14 13 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 8 11 10 15 9 4 11 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -13. -15. -14. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -9. -8. -7. -9. -10. -9. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/30/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)