* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/30/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 27 29 32 35 39 40 39 39 39 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 27 29 32 35 39 40 39 39 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 26 27 28 31 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 25 28 28 25 13 8 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 -1 -1 3 -1 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 264 269 273 279 289 290 343 355 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 132 133 135 136 136 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.0 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 35 38 40 40 42 38 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -55 -66 -77 -89 -105 -123 -132 -133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -7 -17 -12 -29 -18 -22 -21 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -6 -5 -8 -5 -5 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 55 27 143 309 484 798 1129 1415 1677 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.3 23.6 24.0 24.6 25.0 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.5 159.2 160.8 162.5 164.2 167.3 170.5 173.3 175.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 14 14 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 8 7 5 2 3 5 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 800 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/30/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)