* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/30/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 26 29 33 37 39 39 37 37 39 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 29 33 37 39 39 37 37 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 21 22 24 28 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 29 27 23 19 11 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 256 263 270 277 257 294 333 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 134 135 135 135 136 139 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -54.9 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 36 41 42 40 39 37 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 6 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -65 -76 -89 -100 -120 -134 -131 -111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -16 -16 -14 -17 -7 -25 -28 -80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -5 -8 -3 -2 -3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 148 321 493 665 982 1282 1570 1854 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.1 24.6 25.2 25.3 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.4 161.0 162.6 164.3 165.9 169.0 171.9 174.8 177.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 5 8 6 6 2 2 4 14 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 835 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 14. 14. 12. 12. 14. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/30/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)