* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072013 07/30/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 44 48 54 61 64 63 59 57 51 44 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 44 48 54 61 64 63 59 57 51 44 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 39 42 45 49 50 50 50 48 45 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 2 4 4 3 4 2 3 11 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -4 0 3 2 2 2 7 8 2 8 8 SHEAR DIR 326 321 346 249 282 269 323 335 258 245 258 259 254 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 152 153 150 145 139 133 129 126 126 124 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 60 59 59 58 55 56 54 51 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 16 18 18 19 19 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -32 -40 -43 -36 -25 -19 -8 -8 10 16 26 19 200 MB DIV 64 61 53 35 21 37 32 -7 14 39 10 11 -8 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 1 1 4 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1294 1319 1356 1404 1460 1552 1652 1772 1876 1973 2081 2193 2202 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.4 15.0 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.7 16.9 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.7 117.8 119.0 120.1 122.2 124.2 126.1 127.8 129.5 131.3 132.8 134.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 21 23 24 14 9 4 1 3 2 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 11. 14. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 24. 31. 34. 33. 29. 27. 21. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 SEVEN 07/30/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 40% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 SEVEN 07/30/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##