* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 07/31/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 51 55 59 64 67 65 61 54 49 42 37 V (KT) LAND 40 46 51 55 59 64 67 65 61 54 49 42 37 V (KT) LGE mod 40 46 52 56 59 62 61 59 56 52 48 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 7 4 10 4 7 8 8 15 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 1 5 4 SHEAR DIR 320 314 287 296 287 286 299 261 269 279 276 280 278 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 153 152 148 142 136 132 128 127 129 128 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 59 61 60 60 59 62 60 56 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 16 17 17 17 17 17 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -36 -44 -36 -26 -27 -15 -6 5 -2 1 4 0 200 MB DIV 57 48 26 30 46 27 28 20 16 13 25 23 5 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 3 3 3 4 2 3 LAND (KM) 1335 1371 1417 1467 1502 1606 1734 1836 1904 1996 2113 2256 2110 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.6 16.6 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 118.1 119.2 120.2 121.2 123.4 125.4 127.0 128.4 129.9 131.6 133.3 135.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 11 10 9 7 7 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 23 20 13 13 7 19 14 2 2 19 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 19. 24. 27. 25. 21. 14. 9. 2. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##