* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 07/31/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 58 62 68 67 67 63 53 48 41 35 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 58 62 68 67 67 63 53 48 41 35 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 56 57 59 58 57 55 51 47 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 2 6 3 8 7 6 8 16 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 5 4 1 1 0 4 5 4 5 1 3 SHEAR DIR 304 285 298 314 283 279 272 296 331 286 278 299 297 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.4 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 152 150 145 139 133 130 129 130 127 122 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 59 56 58 55 58 59 56 55 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 16 17 19 18 20 20 17 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -34 -28 -25 -24 -17 -11 -3 12 2 15 4 12 200 MB DIV 53 36 47 63 52 24 22 42 32 29 0 4 -18 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 1 -1 1 3 4 5 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1389 1444 1500 1537 1580 1699 1828 1914 2003 2108 2253 2139 1964 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.5 120.6 121.6 122.6 124.6 126.6 128.2 129.6 131.2 133.1 134.8 136.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 7 7 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 17 13 13 10 3 20 17 3 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 9. 9. 5. 5. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 23. 22. 22. 18. 8. 3. -4. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##