* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 07/31/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 61 63 68 67 65 62 54 46 38 33 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 61 63 68 67 65 62 54 46 38 33 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 57 60 61 61 60 58 55 51 46 42 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 2 5 6 10 7 6 2 8 19 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 1 0 0 2 5 8 8 4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 297 324 309 282 284 338 329 341 343 257 283 303 303 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.5 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 150 148 142 135 132 131 132 132 128 123 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 57 57 58 57 61 60 59 57 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 19 19 20 19 17 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -27 -25 -27 -31 -23 -20 -5 -6 -4 0 0 6 200 MB DIV 26 35 50 35 8 46 7 32 26 33 14 30 41 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 0 -2 0 1 2 3 5 0 4 1 LAND (KM) 1433 1491 1537 1588 1645 1781 1902 2004 2113 2220 2232 2055 1864 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.1 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.5 121.6 122.7 123.7 125.8 127.7 129.3 130.8 132.3 134.0 135.7 137.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 14 14 13 8 1 1 2 1 1 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 18. 17. 15. 12. 4. -4. -12. -17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##