* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 07/31/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 71 74 74 71 70 59 51 44 36 30 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 71 74 74 71 70 59 51 44 36 30 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 69 71 71 68 64 61 56 51 46 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 7 7 3 3 8 2 9 16 18 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -1 0 0 0 7 3 6 1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 300 313 290 278 286 286 302 6 270 289 315 310 283 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.8 26.8 27.1 26.8 26.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 150 147 145 141 135 131 131 135 132 124 118 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 57 58 58 57 60 58 56 54 53 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 18 15 15 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -22 -26 -30 -29 -14 -17 0 -5 4 -1 5 2 200 MB DIV 19 37 34 40 35 50 30 52 22 2 -29 -8 -1 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 -1 0 0 1 3 4 2 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1484 1543 1611 1664 1722 1832 1968 2081 2162 2296 2084 1908 1771 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.5 122.8 123.8 124.8 126.4 128.5 130.2 131.5 133.2 135.5 137.2 138.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 11 10 9 9 9 7 7 10 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 15 14 12 11 6 1 1 3 1 4 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 14. 14. 11. 10. -1. -9. -16. -24. -30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 07/31/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##