* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/01/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 79 82 82 80 77 70 63 57 51 43 37 V (KT) LAND 70 75 79 82 82 80 77 70 63 57 51 43 37 V (KT) LGE mod 70 76 80 80 80 74 69 65 61 56 51 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 6 3 2 4 4 10 10 7 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 3 7 4 4 4 7 5 3 SHEAR DIR 308 304 283 314 278 289 53 312 309 331 319 314 218 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 147 146 144 139 134 132 134 137 133 127 122 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 59 57 57 58 60 61 65 63 62 60 60 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 18 18 18 18 18 16 16 16 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -31 -33 -25 -21 -18 1 -9 -12 -12 -6 0 5 200 MB DIV 21 27 40 39 42 0 58 14 -3 9 3 12 17 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -3 -2 2 3 2 2 0 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1519 1565 1615 1679 1747 1875 1990 2112 2256 2251 2072 1920 1776 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.4 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.2 123.2 124.2 125.2 127.0 128.8 130.5 132.3 134.0 135.7 137.2 138.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 10 9 3 2 2 3 2 7 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 12. 10. 7. 0. -7. -13. -19. -27. -33. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/01/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/01/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##