* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/01/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 72 71 70 64 56 51 46 39 32 28 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 72 71 70 64 56 51 46 39 32 28 V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 71 70 68 64 60 56 51 47 43 40 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 4 4 3 3 1 6 10 7 7 3 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 3 6 4 2 3 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 296 283 318 284 282 335 300 274 305 331 268 251 208 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.9 27.3 27.3 26.9 26.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 144 141 136 133 132 136 136 132 125 122 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 57 56 58 59 60 62 64 65 66 63 66 66 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 17 16 15 17 16 14 14 14 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -38 -30 -24 -21 -11 0 -7 -12 -14 -4 5 16 200 MB DIV 25 32 43 42 17 7 34 24 22 5 20 7 22 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -4 -1 2 3 3 1 0 1 3 1 2 LAND (KM) 1576 1635 1699 1770 1846 1956 2058 2175 2313 2181 2006 1851 1718 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 122.3 123.3 124.3 125.4 126.4 128.1 129.6 131.2 132.9 134.7 136.4 137.9 139.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 10 9 2 2 3 4 3 10 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -6. -14. -19. -24. -31. -38. -42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/01/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/01/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##