* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/01/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 69 70 68 64 62 55 53 46 43 39 V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 69 70 68 64 62 55 53 46 43 39 V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 68 67 65 61 58 56 53 50 47 45 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 5 4 2 3 3 7 1 4 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 -1 4 6 10 2 8 6 6 6 SHEAR DIR 240 249 251 272 306 282 349 242 301 213 306 197 274 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 144 141 139 134 132 136 138 136 131 125 123 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.3 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 53 57 56 58 61 64 61 61 60 61 62 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 16 17 17 16 17 16 18 17 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -20 -19 -14 -13 5 -3 1 -12 6 17 32 42 200 MB DIV 35 72 19 -7 -5 59 45 62 14 15 20 59 28 700-850 TADV -3 -5 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1638 1706 1779 1850 1923 2029 2151 2296 2236 2084 1933 1749 1561 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.0 15.0 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 123.4 124.5 125.5 126.5 127.4 129.1 130.9 132.7 134.2 135.7 137.2 139.0 140.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 10 8 3 1 16 2 2 6 2 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 0. 3. 1. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -6. -8. -15. -17. -24. -27. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/01/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/01/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##