* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/01/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 73 74 74 74 69 66 60 52 47 43 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 73 74 74 74 69 66 60 52 47 43 V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 70 69 68 65 64 64 64 62 59 55 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 4 5 4 3 1 2 2 4 4 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 -2 -2 0 5 5 4 5 3 7 8 SHEAR DIR 233 214 228 266 295 357 98 262 180 224 242 242 260 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.3 26.4 26.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 142 140 139 134 135 138 140 136 127 124 124 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 61 61 62 59 61 62 63 61 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 13 14 16 15 16 15 16 16 15 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -24 -19 -17 -6 0 -2 -10 -11 -2 10 24 31 200 MB DIV 50 21 -14 -18 19 61 26 17 0 9 15 10 11 700-850 TADV -6 -2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1737 1797 1860 1932 1996 2136 2245 2338 2193 2018 1804 1625 1484 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.6 14.6 14.9 14.8 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 124.6 125.5 126.4 127.3 128.2 130.2 131.8 133.3 134.8 136.5 138.5 140.3 141.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 11 6 3 1 4 4 3 4 4 2 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. -1. -4. -10. -18. -23. -27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/01/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/01/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##