* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/02/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 82 85 88 90 91 88 85 80 72 63 57 V (KT) LAND 75 78 82 85 88 90 91 88 85 80 72 63 57 V (KT) LGE mod 75 77 79 80 81 83 83 83 82 80 76 68 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 2 3 5 3 3 6 3 3 1 8 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -3 0 4 2 7 7 12 7 10 SHEAR DIR 96 234 116 130 69 9 86 9 76 46 272 277 277 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.1 26.3 26.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 140 138 137 136 138 139 139 135 126 122 123 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 58 61 62 64 62 64 65 66 68 65 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 16 18 17 17 18 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -21 -17 -8 0 -4 -9 -14 -5 13 22 47 38 200 MB DIV 25 17 11 21 73 40 46 25 20 37 25 8 5 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1833 1891 1951 2008 2061 2236 2357 2262 2141 1967 1730 1579 1504 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 125.9 126.7 127.4 128.3 129.1 131.3 132.9 134.1 135.3 137.0 139.3 140.8 141.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 8 8 9 9 7 6 7 10 9 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 5 2 2 4 6 3 5 4 4 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 5. 4. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 13. 10. 5. -3. -12. -18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##