* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/02/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 59 57 53 53 49 46 42 41 35 33 V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 59 57 53 53 49 46 42 41 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 58 55 53 48 45 43 42 41 38 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 5 9 7 9 7 6 3 3 4 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 0 3 5 -2 7 9 12 11 12 10 SHEAR DIR 250 241 278 291 285 284 329 202 253 164 174 189 258 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.3 27.7 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 135 134 132 136 140 139 134 129 128 129 128 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 62 65 65 64 67 69 72 69 69 67 64 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 14 13 14 17 16 17 17 20 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -10 -3 -5 -10 -7 -6 10 11 22 44 51 64 200 MB DIV 26 37 77 42 41 67 54 79 34 52 36 46 54 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -4 -2 0 1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1984 2036 2091 2136 2182 2294 2279 2114 1938 1794 1688 1531 1358 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.0 14.8 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.8 13.8 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.7 129.5 130.3 131.0 132.4 133.9 135.6 137.4 138.9 140.1 141.7 143.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 2 3 6 4 5 2 4 13 11 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 0. 2. 2. 6. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -16. -19. -23. -24. -30. -32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##