* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/02/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 53 51 50 49 51 51 53 50 48 46 48 V (KT) LAND 60 56 53 51 50 49 51 51 53 50 48 46 48 V (KT) LGE mod 60 55 51 48 46 43 42 43 45 45 44 43 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 3 6 13 4 4 6 5 0 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 3 -1 0 4 4 7 7 4 2 SHEAR DIR 260 280 297 317 286 329 62 217 114 170 194 116 109 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.7 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 135 136 140 141 138 132 129 129 129 129 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 65 67 71 70 70 72 75 73 70 65 65 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 13 14 15 15 15 17 16 18 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -8 -8 -3 -5 -3 10 13 29 39 55 63 55 200 MB DIV 21 71 53 29 51 67 81 67 70 60 47 74 79 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2062 2118 2175 2229 2283 2354 2210 2056 1883 1724 1565 1437 1317 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.1 13.7 13.4 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 129.0 129.7 130.3 131.0 131.7 133.3 134.7 136.2 137.9 139.6 141.4 142.9 144.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 6 9 8 5 6 2 8 13 12 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 5. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -9. -9. -7. -10. -12. -14. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##