* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/03/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 49 48 48 50 50 51 53 53 54 53 V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 49 48 48 50 50 51 53 53 54 53 V (KT) LGE mod 55 51 49 46 44 41 40 41 43 46 48 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 12 17 17 7 4 5 12 7 12 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 2 0 3 1 -1 0 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 261 281 286 298 316 335 129 167 127 119 105 125 121 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 137 139 140 139 135 131 130 131 131 130 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 63 65 70 71 72 71 73 74 73 69 66 64 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 13 15 15 15 15 15 16 18 18 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -11 -6 0 -4 4 9 25 46 66 76 71 66 200 MB DIV 49 61 39 56 56 52 55 52 61 63 64 81 65 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 2 3 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2128 2186 2244 2304 2365 2234 2080 1935 1803 1668 1528 1369 1170 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.6 13.3 13.3 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 130.0 130.7 131.4 132.2 133.0 134.4 136.0 137.5 138.9 140.4 142.0 143.7 145.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 9 7 4 5 2 4 14 15 10 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/03/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/03/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##