* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 49 49 47 46 46 48 50 50 49 50 V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 49 49 47 46 46 48 50 50 49 50 V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 50 48 46 43 42 42 42 44 46 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 13 8 6 5 7 5 8 5 10 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 4 3 1 3 2 0 1 0 0 5 SHEAR DIR 286 295 310 318 292 165 183 150 109 98 117 115 146 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 137 139 140 139 137 134 132 132 132 131 130 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 63 68 70 72 69 66 70 71 70 62 61 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR -4 3 7 9 5 12 17 37 53 65 77 70 72 200 MB DIV 37 46 44 44 45 45 61 33 46 55 84 55 56 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 1 1 3 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 2190 2253 2317 2336 2262 2124 1976 1851 1731 1596 1451 1314 1186 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.1 13.7 13.3 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 131.0 131.8 132.6 133.4 134.1 135.5 137.1 138.5 139.9 141.4 143.0 144.5 145.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 5 4 4 2 3 11 16 15 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -5. -6. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/03/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/03/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##