* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 08/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 39 43 41 37 32 32 32 31 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 34 39 43 41 37 32 32 32 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 26 26 26 25 23 23 24 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 30 36 37 29 21 44 50 43 43 44 55 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 -1 2 5 8 0 0 -1 1 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 354 1 355 349 340 235 210 210 219 233 239 242 N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.2 27.0 25.4 18.9 15.6 15.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 133 134 132 133 138 144 128 112 79 72 73 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 115 117 116 119 126 130 112 97 73 68 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.9 -54.5 -54.7 -54.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 9 8 8 6 5 4 3 1 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 55 56 55 52 44 39 38 42 44 46 48 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 7 11 14 13 14 13 17 22 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -69 -57 -42 -35 -3 30 67 26 -15 -38 -20 -20 N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -16 0 6 46 50 71 16 35 6 -11 -11 N/A 700-850 TADV -3 3 6 -11 -5 -14 6 -7 -12 -25 -23 -57 N/A LAND (KM) 236 282 281 289 305 585 686 650 582 417 567 836 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.9 31.6 32.4 33.1 34.9 37.4 39.5 41.5 43.6 45.6 47.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.8 77.9 77.0 75.5 73.9 69.5 64.2 59.3 54.6 50.1 45.9 41.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 13 15 18 22 23 21 20 19 18 19 N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 27 19 21 9 12 20 12 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 18. 18. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 3. -4. -12. -18. -23. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 6. 5. 8. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 11. 7. 2. 2. 2. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 08/03/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 08/03/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 08/03/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED