* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 49 47 46 47 44 46 49 48 48 48 49 V (KT) LAND 50 48 49 47 46 47 44 46 49 48 48 48 49 V (KT) LGE mod 50 48 46 45 45 43 43 44 46 49 54 57 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 0 2 5 7 4 4 6 11 11 8 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 6 0 0 3 6 3 1 -1 -6 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 289 295 74 253 266 147 232 106 120 114 122 117 52 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 139 140 140 138 135 133 131 130 132 133 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 70 66 66 71 66 63 60 62 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 15 13 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 11 3 -3 8 20 32 57 74 81 72 51 200 MB DIV 33 47 71 52 26 44 49 30 21 32 60 49 31 700-850 TADV -2 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 2278 2338 2321 2241 2162 2023 1911 1770 1639 1544 1499 1330 1093 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.2 13.7 13.3 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.9 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 132.2 132.9 133.5 134.3 135.1 136.6 137.9 139.5 140.9 142.0 142.6 144.4 147.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 6 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 8 15 17 18 8 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -3. -4. -3. -6. -4. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/03/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/03/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##