* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/03/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 51 51 51 53 57 57 58 58 55 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 51 51 51 53 57 57 58 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 49 48 48 49 52 57 62 66 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 1 5 5 6 7 4 9 7 6 7 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 0 -1 4 3 0 -3 0 1 7 7 SHEAR DIR 299 226 242 238 159 177 148 130 106 96 85 83 67 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 137 135 133 129 129 130 131 131 130 132 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 62 63 66 66 64 57 58 55 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 14 14 14 14 13 14 15 15 15 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 13 13 3 0 10 12 27 48 66 82 77 62 35 200 MB DIV 36 46 41 28 27 46 26 43 39 48 65 76 43 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 2 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 2337 2261 2184 2111 2039 1914 1778 1668 1576 1449 1296 1146 1000 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.4 14.0 13.6 13.3 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 133.2 134.0 134.7 135.5 136.2 137.6 139.1 140.4 141.5 142.9 144.5 146.2 148.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 5 7 8 1 4 14 15 15 6 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 7. 8. 8. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/03/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/03/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##