* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/04/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 47 49 49 52 55 54 53 53 54 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 47 49 49 52 55 54 53 53 54 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 43 43 42 42 44 46 51 55 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 5 7 6 6 1 7 10 11 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 1 2 1 5 0 -1 1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 222 200 196 195 165 176 144 146 97 108 114 114 82 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 137 136 136 133 132 132 133 132 132 131 133 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 60 61 63 63 60 58 58 55 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 10 3 -1 3 2 10 15 31 32 42 31 26 16 200 MB DIV 36 48 40 28 40 42 33 39 51 73 44 66 56 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 2264 2187 2111 2058 2005 1869 1736 1626 1518 1381 1216 1093 1010 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.4 14.0 13.4 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 133.9 134.7 135.5 136.1 136.7 138.2 139.8 141.2 142.4 143.9 145.7 147.2 148.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 8 8 6 7 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 7 7 4 2 10 16 18 11 3 3 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 7. 10. 9. 8. 8. 9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/04/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/04/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##