* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082013 08/04/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 61 71 76 76 71 69 63 59 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 61 71 76 76 71 69 63 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 46 55 63 67 66 61 54 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 16 13 11 7 2 4 5 12 8 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -5 -8 -9 -6 -4 -3 0 0 1 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 357 32 44 58 75 68 55 334 288 292 270 276 279 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.6 26.9 25.3 24.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 147 147 144 140 139 140 133 116 112 113 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -52.6 -53.1 -52.4 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 75 77 76 73 73 75 75 76 74 69 68 66 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 11 12 12 13 13 15 15 16 17 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 16 30 36 44 40 37 33 28 26 24 16 200 MB DIV 87 92 54 50 75 129 111 100 85 84 39 56 43 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -3 -2 2 11 5 10 LAND (KM) 1843 1907 1971 2037 2104 2228 2272 2337 2307 2094 1877 1655 1418 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.0 17.7 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.1 125.8 126.6 127.4 129.1 130.4 132.0 133.6 135.4 137.2 139.2 141.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 13 15 13 8 7 11 4 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 12. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 31. 41. 47. 46. 41. 39. 33. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 EIGHT 08/04/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 EIGHT 08/04/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##