* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 08/04/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 40 46 45 38 30 28 27 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 40 46 45 38 30 28 27 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 31 29 26 22 21 21 21 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 23 8 24 35 40 45 48 48 51 43 42 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 5 5 5 11 10 4 9 10 5 2 5 SHEAR DIR 337 327 298 198 205 203 205 213 238 237 252 275 289 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.3 27.4 22.1 12.3 15.2 14.5 15.8 16.8 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 137 142 146 135 93 72 75 74 75 76 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 123 125 131 136 125 86 70 72 71 71 71 69 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -52.3 -51.4 -50.4 -49.4 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 51 48 43 43 41 44 44 46 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 13 12 10 11 17 21 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -2 14 15 37 48 27 33 67 93 102 53 -6 200 MB DIV 6 29 58 69 60 88 35 32 19 31 14 -7 2 700-850 TADV -10 -9 1 -16 -5 4 6 -8 -9 -41 -19 14 -4 LAND (KM) 244 357 525 737 800 695 411 473 1039 1341 704 157 23 LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.3 33.7 34.8 35.8 39.1 43.0 46.7 49.4 51.5 53.2 54.5 54.7 LONG(DEG W) 75.4 73.0 70.6 67.9 65.1 59.2 53.2 46.7 38.8 29.8 20.6 12.2 5.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 21 22 25 27 29 30 29 30 30 27 23 21 HEAT CONTENT 24 10 9 14 14 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 16 CX,CY: 11/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 837 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 5. -2. -10. -17. -21. -25. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 2. 8. 12. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 15. 8. 0. -2. -3. -9. -17. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 08/04/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 08/04/13 06 UTC ## ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 08/04/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)