* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/04/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 38 40 42 46 47 47 47 48 50 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 38 40 42 46 47 47 47 48 50 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 35 34 33 33 34 36 40 45 49 52 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 3 3 4 4 10 11 13 14 13 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 2 5 1 -5 -7 -6 -5 -2 0 5 SHEAR DIR 180 196 184 161 168 143 118 109 120 101 99 58 76 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 139 137 135 135 135 134 133 133 133 134 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 65 62 62 63 65 62 61 59 60 59 57 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 -8 -11 -4 5 10 19 24 29 28 20 26 200 MB DIV 53 37 19 25 35 12 30 45 66 55 64 29 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 2190 2128 2067 2006 1945 1829 1708 1588 1453 1321 1194 1101 1021 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.4 14.1 13.9 13.6 13.1 12.6 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 134.8 135.5 136.2 136.9 137.6 139.0 140.5 141.9 143.3 144.8 146.4 147.6 148.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 7 8 6 5 8 12 15 15 7 3 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/04/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/04/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##