* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082013 08/04/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 48 59 66 73 72 69 66 63 59 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 48 59 66 73 72 69 66 63 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 42 49 57 62 65 64 59 54 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 14 15 9 6 7 0 4 4 7 6 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 -8 -8 -7 -5 -3 -5 0 -3 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 59 57 70 90 84 63 266 4 280 293 238 291 284 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.6 27.6 26.5 25.3 25.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 145 145 142 138 140 140 129 116 114 113 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 77 75 74 76 76 75 76 74 72 68 69 65 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 15 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 16 22 27 30 35 33 35 32 20 16 22 16 22 200 MB DIV 92 68 47 75 84 73 98 73 88 57 58 21 9 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -4 -1 -3 -4 1 0 4 3 LAND (KM) 1902 1959 2017 2073 2130 2239 2299 2378 2211 2009 1786 1554 1308 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.0 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.9 16.9 17.5 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 125.2 125.9 126.6 127.3 128.0 129.6 131.2 132.8 134.5 136.2 138.1 140.2 142.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 14 13 11 7 8 7 4 12 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 29. 36. 43. 42. 39. 36. 33. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 EIGHT 08/04/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 EIGHT 08/04/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##