* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/04/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 25 26 27 30 34 39 42 42 44 46 V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 25 26 27 30 34 39 42 42 44 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 24 23 22 23 24 26 28 31 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 9 10 8 10 9 11 12 17 11 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 1 2 -2 -4 -4 -4 -2 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 191 150 134 145 145 138 127 99 84 89 67 55 63 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 136 136 135 135 135 135 137 140 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 66 65 64 63 63 65 64 63 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 9 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -4 -7 -5 -2 3 10 9 10 6 0 -4 -7 200 MB DIV 34 25 37 51 55 37 39 39 59 62 59 49 44 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 -4 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 2138 2065 1994 1930 1869 1751 1612 1470 1345 1227 1121 994 875 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.6 13.3 12.7 12.3 12.1 11.8 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.5 LONG(DEG W) 135.4 136.2 137.0 137.8 138.5 140.0 141.7 143.4 145.1 146.9 148.7 150.7 152.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 8 6 7 11 14 14 8 6 8 18 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. 0. 4. 9. 12. 12. 14. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/04/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/04/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##