* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082013 08/04/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 53 62 69 72 72 68 65 60 55 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 53 62 69 72 72 68 65 60 55 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 54 60 64 65 64 59 53 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 6 5 4 5 5 8 7 9 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -8 -8 -5 -5 -5 -1 -3 0 2 5 5 SHEAR DIR 65 71 90 86 54 23 347 7 350 356 338 13 39 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.3 26.2 25.3 25.2 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 144 143 141 138 140 137 126 116 115 113 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.4 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 72 74 74 73 76 77 75 75 76 70 65 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 12 13 13 15 15 16 16 16 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 16 32 35 36 29 26 28 16 9 7 3 -1 3 200 MB DIV 59 54 77 92 95 97 75 84 53 66 48 23 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -4 -3 -2 2 4 5 2 LAND (KM) 1963 2014 2066 2127 2189 2272 2330 2300 2112 1898 1658 1446 1260 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.3 14.2 14.8 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.2 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 126.1 126.8 127.4 128.2 128.9 130.4 132.1 133.7 135.4 137.3 139.4 141.3 143.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 13 10 8 8 16 10 10 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 27. 34. 37. 37. 33. 30. 25. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 EIGHT 08/04/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 EIGHT 08/04/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##