* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/04/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 28 30 34 37 42 44 46 47 49 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 28 30 34 37 42 44 46 47 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 8 8 10 11 12 10 13 11 11 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 -2 -6 -6 -4 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 209 151 154 148 148 140 114 109 66 82 63 72 67 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 136 135 134 134 135 135 134 136 138 138 137 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 65 65 64 62 63 61 59 56 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 1 9 17 15 29 20 12 1 -14 -24 -23 200 MB DIV 22 18 26 28 32 42 54 84 79 62 37 34 4 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 2060 1995 1931 1865 1800 1684 1557 1417 1273 1133 998 873 788 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.3 12.7 12.3 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 136.2 137.0 137.7 138.5 139.2 140.7 142.3 144.0 145.7 147.5 149.5 151.5 153.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 6 7 9 12 16 12 5 6 12 18 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 4. 7. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/04/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/04/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##