* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/04/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 51 55 63 69 73 72 70 67 63 61 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 51 55 63 69 73 72 70 67 63 61 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 48 51 57 62 65 67 66 63 59 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 10 8 8 5 6 1 7 4 7 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -7 -5 -4 -7 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 76 94 81 62 43 21 7 360 5 49 17 51 77 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.1 26.1 25.6 25.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 145 144 142 141 141 135 124 119 117 116 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 74 73 77 74 73 71 72 67 63 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 25 25 24 18 13 6 1 -9 -19 -10 -4 0 0 200 MB DIV 64 75 91 90 82 85 63 82 41 52 16 7 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 -2 0 2 2 1 5 LAND (KM) 2056 2115 2175 2225 2275 2333 2384 2262 2057 1849 1637 1450 1271 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.3 12.4 13.0 13.9 14.7 15.3 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.4 128.1 128.8 129.5 130.9 132.5 134.1 135.9 137.8 139.8 141.5 143.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 12 10 10 10 19 9 12 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 29. 33. 32. 30. 27. 23. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/04/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/04/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##