* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/05/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 31 33 37 40 43 45 48 49 50 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 31 33 37 40 43 45 48 49 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 35 38 40 43 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 9 12 12 11 14 9 11 11 13 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -4 -6 -5 -6 -4 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 142 135 137 142 144 123 108 101 80 59 68 70 84 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 134 134 135 134 134 134 136 137 136 134 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 63 62 63 61 61 59 57 54 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -1 3 8 7 26 11 8 -4 -3 -17 -14 -11 200 MB DIV 23 37 36 32 42 37 44 75 55 59 43 40 35 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 2006 1942 1880 1814 1750 1629 1484 1341 1194 1044 905 794 722 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 13.8 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 136.8 137.6 138.3 139.1 139.9 141.4 143.1 144.8 146.5 148.4 150.5 152.5 154.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 7 9 11 13 15 8 3 7 16 12 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##