* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/05/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 62 68 77 82 82 81 75 71 65 59 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 62 68 77 82 82 81 75 71 65 59 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 59 62 68 72 73 71 66 61 56 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 12 10 8 2 7 7 8 11 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -5 -5 -6 -4 0 -3 0 3 4 3 7 SHEAR DIR 82 76 53 43 39 25 13 343 30 20 68 68 53 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.8 27.6 26.7 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 145 144 141 142 140 130 122 119 119 120 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.2 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 75 77 77 74 71 72 70 66 62 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 17 18 18 19 18 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 24 24 18 13 10 6 0 -9 -4 0 9 12 15 200 MB DIV 91 116 104 93 103 75 95 56 55 36 35 26 -2 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -6 -4 -4 -1 0 2 3 2 0 4 LAND (KM) 2127 2174 2223 2274 2324 2385 2354 2155 1954 1770 1575 1365 1131 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.3 12.5 13.2 14.1 14.8 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 127.3 128.0 128.6 129.4 130.2 131.8 133.4 135.1 136.9 138.6 140.4 142.4 144.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 11 10 9 16 15 8 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 23. 32. 37. 37. 36. 30. 26. 20. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/05/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/05/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##