* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 61 69 72 73 71 67 62 57 51 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 61 69 72 73 71 67 62 57 51 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 53 55 59 62 63 61 58 54 50 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 9 7 4 4 8 4 9 9 8 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 3 1 4 4 10 SHEAR DIR 69 45 34 41 36 5 355 8 31 40 63 71 194 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.3 26.3 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 145 143 141 140 141 137 126 119 119 120 120 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 76 75 74 72 72 72 68 65 59 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 16 18 19 18 19 19 18 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 7 3 0 0 -8 -4 4 8 18 18 19 200 MB DIV 123 107 96 102 105 99 102 57 62 12 28 25 15 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -6 -5 -5 -2 -2 2 3 2 -1 2 1 LAND (KM) 2150 2187 2225 2263 2288 2361 2320 2105 1893 1699 1524 1280 993 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.7 14.5 15.1 15.6 15.9 15.9 16.2 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 127.6 128.3 128.9 129.7 130.4 132.0 133.6 135.5 137.4 139.2 140.9 143.2 145.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 14 11 9 7 6 17 15 10 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 5. 7. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 27. 28. 26. 22. 17. 12. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/05/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/05/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##