* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 25 29 32 36 41 43 44 44 47 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 25 29 32 36 41 43 44 44 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 21 22 23 24 27 29 31 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 13 10 5 9 7 10 12 14 16 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -4 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 124 119 128 150 141 103 78 75 59 64 69 70 65 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 135 135 137 136 135 135 136 137 136 135 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 59 58 57 60 59 58 56 54 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -1 3 2 19 14 10 16 4 1 -10 -14 -17 -6 200 MB DIV 31 40 49 34 22 32 41 49 66 39 37 14 4 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1890 1826 1765 1695 1627 1487 1326 1194 1056 943 838 750 700 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.3 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.5 12.3 12.4 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 138.2 139.0 139.7 140.5 141.3 143.0 144.9 146.5 148.1 149.8 151.8 153.7 155.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 11 12 12 13 4 4 6 9 9 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 4. 7. 11. 16. 18. 19. 19. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##