* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 60 67 67 69 64 58 53 47 43 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 60 67 67 69 64 58 53 47 43 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 49 50 53 55 56 54 51 47 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 16 9 9 4 7 4 6 7 11 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -3 -3 -1 2 3 4 5 3 4 7 SHEAR DIR 53 31 24 41 45 24 349 84 21 49 81 93 299 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.6 26.9 25.8 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 144 141 139 140 132 121 117 118 121 121 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.3 -53.0 -52.3 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 77 76 74 72 71 67 65 60 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 20 20 19 20 19 20 18 16 15 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 6 4 1 -1 -8 -7 -11 0 0 -2 13 7 12 200 MB DIV 106 107 128 108 79 71 42 48 29 6 11 12 3 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -7 -5 -4 0 3 6 3 1 1 3 6 LAND (KM) 2182 2216 2252 2276 2293 2347 2242 2038 1835 1630 1428 1183 918 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.6 129.3 130.1 130.8 132.5 134.2 136.0 137.8 139.7 141.6 143.9 146.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 7 5 7 20 9 10 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 6. 3. 0. -1. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 22. 24. 19. 13. 8. 2. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/05/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/05/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##