* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/05/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 42 47 49 50 53 52 53 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 42 47 49 50 53 52 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 34 36 39 42 45 47 49 51 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 9 6 7 8 9 8 12 10 8 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 138 134 138 126 106 113 64 51 50 71 70 93 37 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 134 134 136 136 135 134 133 134 134 133 130 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 63 60 61 60 58 60 58 58 53 52 51 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 12 8 25 22 16 19 3 -3 -19 -23 -22 -11 -4 200 MB DIV 29 37 27 24 25 22 32 58 26 32 19 21 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1819 1770 1722 1665 1610 1453 1321 1181 1015 862 701 586 523 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.0 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 139.0 139.7 140.3 141.0 141.6 143.3 144.8 146.2 147.9 149.8 152.2 154.2 155.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 8 7 8 9 10 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 12 12 13 12 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 19. 20. 23. 22. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/05/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##