* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/05/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 72 76 76 72 66 60 54 46 40 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 72 76 76 72 66 60 54 46 40 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 63 66 68 69 69 66 61 55 50 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 7 3 1 4 1 1 5 5 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 0 2 2 6 6 5 5 SHEAR DIR 36 21 20 11 346 56 357 208 61 97 137 249 305 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.3 26.8 25.7 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 140 137 137 131 120 115 116 118 121 122 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 75 73 71 70 68 64 59 55 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 18 18 19 18 18 18 16 14 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 -9 -13 -11 -22 -17 -11 -5 0 7 18 10 200 MB DIV 81 106 104 75 39 41 19 27 4 0 22 10 -13 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -6 -4 -2 1 6 7 4 -1 2 -1 5 LAND (KM) 2193 2218 2237 2250 2267 2337 2139 1934 1738 1527 1337 1101 837 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.3 15.3 16.1 16.8 17.2 17.3 17.0 17.0 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 128.5 129.2 129.8 130.6 131.4 133.2 134.9 136.7 138.5 140.5 142.4 144.7 147.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 6 9 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 21. 21. 18. 11. 5. -1. -9. -15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/05/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/05/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##