* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/06/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 46 49 51 53 53 55 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 46 49 51 53 53 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 37 41 44 47 49 52 54 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 6 8 5 10 5 9 3 3 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 148 138 128 126 113 89 86 88 69 56 46 45 67 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 133 133 133 134 134 132 132 132 131 132 132 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 55 56 58 56 55 53 50 50 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 18 13 20 20 8 16 -2 -9 -26 -22 -8 4 4 200 MB DIV 24 23 18 3 19 21 37 40 39 31 20 16 12 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1736 1685 1635 1576 1518 1393 1240 1073 899 758 651 545 526 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 139.8 140.5 141.1 141.8 142.4 143.7 145.2 146.9 148.7 150.3 151.8 153.8 156.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 11 13 16 9 2 1 2 23 1 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##