* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/06/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 70 72 69 64 54 47 40 32 27 24 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 70 72 69 64 54 47 40 32 27 24 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 67 68 68 65 59 52 45 40 35 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 3 2 7 5 9 3 3 6 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -2 0 -2 1 0 7 5 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 11 345 333 266 191 273 180 260 301 301 295 312 317 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.1 26.7 25.6 25.1 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 137 135 135 130 119 114 114 116 118 121 124 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -53.2 -52.2 -52.9 -52.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 72 73 68 67 64 60 53 48 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 20 20 20 19 19 17 16 14 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -1 4 -2 1 0 -14 -9 -3 8 18 20 24 10 200 MB DIV 84 97 65 50 63 4 29 2 15 -3 10 4 5 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 0 0 4 8 5 1 0 1 2 7 LAND (KM) 2222 2223 2229 2249 2274 2204 1997 1803 1594 1387 1182 949 716 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.4 17.3 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.3 131.0 131.8 132.6 134.2 136.0 137.8 139.8 141.8 143.8 146.1 148.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 8 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 12. 9. 4. -6. -13. -20. -28. -33. -36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/06/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/06/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##