* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 41 45 50 53 56 58 59 60 61 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 41 45 50 53 56 58 59 60 61 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 41 45 49 53 57 60 62 65 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 5 7 4 7 7 7 4 4 5 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -4 -1 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 166 134 113 124 116 53 78 61 96 71 86 69 117 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 133 133 134 133 132 131 130 131 131 131 131 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 57 55 54 55 57 54 56 53 53 53 52 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 17 18 13 12 10 9 7 -8 -16 -14 -7 -8 4 200 MB DIV 31 26 31 36 15 34 25 25 34 8 5 -5 -5 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1663 1608 1554 1490 1427 1272 1119 940 768 659 606 535 487 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.2 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.2 14.6 14.6 14.2 14.2 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 140.6 141.3 141.9 142.6 143.2 144.7 146.2 147.9 149.7 151.3 152.7 154.5 156.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 15 15 10 1 3 2 20 21 2 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##