* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 76 76 75 70 62 55 49 44 40 36 V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 76 76 75 70 62 55 49 44 40 36 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 72 74 75 74 68 61 54 49 45 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 1 2 3 2 5 2 2 3 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -2 0 -2 -3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 43 25 8 146 130 203 173 271 316 327 318 357 263 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.3 25.4 25.1 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 137 137 135 126 117 114 116 118 124 125 128 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 76 74 70 70 69 66 64 59 55 52 50 45 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 19 20 18 18 16 15 13 11 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -6 -3 -9 -10 -18 -6 1 11 18 26 17 16 200 MB DIV 87 57 43 56 20 -7 12 -3 11 8 0 -15 -14 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -2 0 0 3 5 5 -2 1 -4 1 1 LAND (KM) 2263 2279 2299 2320 2271 2085 1884 1690 1481 1273 1067 825 555 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.2 17.5 17.5 17.1 16.5 16.4 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 130.5 131.3 132.1 132.9 133.7 135.3 137.1 138.9 140.9 143.0 145.2 147.7 150.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 14 9 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 11. 10. 5. -3. -10. -16. -21. -25. -29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/06/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/06/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##