* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/06/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 45 49 52 54 53 53 53 54 54 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 45 49 52 54 53 53 53 54 54 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 42 46 50 54 56 57 58 59 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 4 2 8 5 5 2 0 2 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -4 -5 -3 -4 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 162 135 125 151 47 100 94 83 226 338 352 46 266 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 133 134 134 133 132 131 131 131 130 129 128 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 56 54 57 59 58 56 59 57 57 56 56 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 18 14 14 18 11 9 4 -9 -12 -3 3 -8 -2 200 MB DIV 21 22 30 36 40 49 47 42 16 8 11 -8 -5 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 -1 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 1581 1529 1479 1408 1338 1176 1019 860 706 602 556 524 491 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.5 14.2 14.2 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 141.5 142.1 142.7 143.4 144.1 145.7 147.3 148.9 150.7 152.3 153.8 155.1 156.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 9 3 2 2 2 22 1 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 5. 4. 4. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 18. 18. 18. 19. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##