* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/06/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 75 74 72 67 57 48 40 32 26 22 19 V (KT) LAND 70 73 75 74 72 67 57 48 40 32 26 22 19 V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 75 75 73 67 58 50 43 38 35 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 6 5 5 6 3 5 6 6 7 5 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 0 -2 -2 0 2 3 1 1 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 4 292 314 286 282 238 224 229 280 262 305 311 284 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.9 25.9 25.2 25.1 25.3 25.6 26.0 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 137 136 132 122 115 114 116 119 124 127 129 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 69 69 68 66 66 64 58 54 51 53 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 20 18 17 17 15 14 13 11 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -17 -17 -20 -29 -28 -19 -14 3 12 17 9 12 200 MB DIV 43 45 63 9 -6 29 33 42 -3 3 0 1 -1 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 2 7 9 4 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 2275 2291 2311 2292 2191 2005 1809 1583 1367 1146 968 731 451 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.5 17.2 16.5 16.4 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 131.2 132.0 132.7 133.6 134.4 136.0 137.8 139.9 142.0 144.2 146.2 148.7 151.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 8 12 10 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 2. -3. -13. -22. -30. -38. -44. -48. -51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/06/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/06/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##