* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/06/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 29 31 32 33 33 34 32 33 34 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 29 31 32 33 33 34 32 33 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 26 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 3 2 4 2 4 3 4 4 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -4 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 157 138 193 244 38 155 132 216 221 200 246 229 255 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 132 132 132 131 129 127 129 130 129 128 129 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 56 54 56 55 54 55 54 51 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 29 12 24 15 3 5 -14 7 5 7 4 4 6 200 MB DIV 10 14 23 33 39 50 54 32 24 35 8 -5 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 -1 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1576 1499 1423 1344 1266 1111 932 785 675 576 472 460 496 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.7 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 14.8 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 141.5 142.3 143.0 143.8 144.5 146.0 147.6 149.0 150.4 151.9 153.6 155.0 156.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 8 1 22 2 2 2 14 18 1 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 3. 4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##